Saudi-Arabia led Ukraine-Russia Peace Process: A deeper meaning for the Russian Federation

Introduction

Across historical trajectories, Saudi Arabia has consistently upheld a significant and long-lasting partnership with the United States in the West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region. At present, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in orchestrating coordinated diplomatic initiatives aimed at pressuring Moscow to expedite the resolution of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In this pursuit, Saudi Arabia is actively working to establish a united international stance that will contribute to a prompt resolution of the conflict.

Following the Arab Uprising in the West Asia region, Saudi Arabia's diplomatic relationship with Moscow has shown clear signs of improvement. This progress is especially significant when compared to past events, such as the OPEC Plus agreement negotiated during the Obama administration. Additionally, a noticeable increase has been observed in Saudi-Russian trade and business connections, along with their joint endeavors in cultural domains.

It's fascinating to note that fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member nations, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, have also fostered strong diplomatic connections with Russia. This pattern continues even in the face of past disagreements between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, stemming from differing opinions on Russia's backing of the Assad government in Syria. The changing dynamics of these associations highlight the complex tapestry of regional diplomacy, where varying viewpoints and shared interests intersect to influence the path of global interaction.

The question of Bread

Diplomats from approximately 40 nations received invitations from both Ukraine and Saudi Arabia to participate in discussions hosted at the Red Sea port of Jeddah. Among the participants was India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval.  Nevertheless, conspicuously missing from the list of attendees was Russia. This situation prompts thought-provoking questions about Saudi Arabia's choice to offer Ukraine a distinct opportunity to voice its viewpoints on this platform once more, while the absence of a contrasting Russian perspective raises further curiosity.

The notable lack of Russian presence, which could have potentially raised objections or chosen dramatic exits, established an atmosphere conducive to the effective expression of Ukrainian viewpoints throughout the talks. This situation seems to have been a primary motive behind the assembly of these discussions. It's worth highlighting that Russia's recent choice to withdraw from a United Nations-mediated grain agreement has added even more importance to these conversations. This agreement previously enabled the transfer of Ukrainian agricultural goods via the Black Sea to areas dealing with food shortages.

The ongoing conflict initiated by Russia in Feb 2022 within Ukraine has yielded repercussions that extend far beyond its borders. The situation has impeded the departure of grain from Ukraine, often referred to as the "breadbasket of the world," leading to an escalation in worldwide food costs. This phenomenon poses a dire risk of exacerbating shortages, hunger, and even political instability, particularly in developing nations.

Russia and Ukraine, in combined efforts, contribute to the export of nearly one-third of the global supply of wheat and barley. Furthermore, they account for over 70 percent of worldwide sunflower oil exports and play substantial roles in the corn market. Given their integral position in these commodities, the disruption caused by the conflict has introduced significant uncertainty and volatility into these markets.

Saudi Arabia and conflict resolution for Ukraine

Unexpectedly, Saudi Arabia has assumed the role of a mediator amidst conflicting parties. In September 2022, Riyadh reportedly engaged in facilitating a prisoner exchange agreement between Ukraine and Russia, resulting in the release of ten detainees, including five British nationals, one Swedish citizen, a Moroccan, a Croatian, and two Americans. Supposedly, the genesis of these negotiations can be attributed to Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

In a recurring pattern, Saudi Arabia has redirected its focus towards the plight of Ukrainian Muslims residing in Crimea, to align its national endeavors with broader Islamic sentiments. It is of significance that the Crimean Peninsula serves as the historical homeland of the Crimean Tatars, a Turkic ethnocultural community adhering to the Sunni branch of Islam.

Certain officials within the United States have raised allegations against Riyadh, suggesting its involvement in bolstering Russia's military efforts against Ukraine by its reduction in crude oil production, a move that precipitated a significant surge in global oil prices. The cooperative stance of the Saudi-led OPEC with Russia has attracted notable censure from a multitude of quarters in Washington.

In a related development, Ukraine unveiled a series of ten propositions for the negotiation of the ongoing conflict. These propositions were initially presented in November of the preceding year and have resurfaced for discussion in recent meetings. Their role in shaping the negotiations underscores their importance in seeking a resolution to the complex situation at hand.

Saudi Arabia has proactively undertaken efforts to expand its sphere of international relationships with a clear intention of reducing its dependency on any single ally, most notably the United States. This endeavor has yielded significant success, as evidenced by its successful cultivation of partnerships with diverse nations such as China and Russia, and China and Arab States' mutual cooperation. Furthermore, the Kingdom has directed its attention towards fostering diplomatic ties with nations like Turkey and Iran, underscoring its strategic ambition to establish a comprehensive and balanced network of global affiliations.

Conversely, the United States has also been actively engaged in promoting relations with Saudi Arabia, reflecting the mutual recognition of the strategic value that each party holds for the other. This nuanced diplomatic dynamic exemplifies the complex and interwoven nature of contemporary international relations. Simultaneously, China remains resolute in its pursuit of a peace-oriented strategy, retaining its position concerning the political resolution of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This stance underscores China's aspiration to carve out its distinct role within the evolving Eurasian geopolitical landscape.

Meaning for the Russian Federation

In June, a delegation of African leaders embarked on a visit to Moscow to advocate their self-formulated peace proposal, seeking to mitigate the ongoing conflict and alleviate strains on grain supplies. From the vantage point of Russian President Vladimir Putin, this comprehensive strategy, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was originally mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, also serves as a strategic leverage point for Russia.

Anticipating the United States to encourage Saudi Arabia in fostering a shared consensus among countries of the global south in support of the Ukrainian peace model is one aspect. On the other hand, Moscow's growing dependence on China's political and economic influence assumes particular significance for the concept of multi-polarity and strategic autonomy, especially concerning nations of the global south. As the weekend approaches, Russia's efforts to enhance China's strategic and global standing emerge as a topic of considerable deliberation among Kremlin elites. This prompts discussions about how the Kremlin intends to formulate or re-structure a global order that secures essential strategic advantages for Russia.

The transformation of a battlefield scenario into a peace process hinges on the readiness to engage in bilateral discussions between Russia and Ukraine. Both the United States and Ukraine are currently viewing the global south through the lens of their individual historical opportunities and losses. This perspective generates distinct narratives, such as the notion of a "Conflict between Ukraine and the International Community." Drawing a parallel, the United States' accomplishments in Iraq presented risks for the global community, with the energy supply emerging as a central element of the risk-taking points.

Conclusion

With the Monroe Doctrine asserting the Western Hemisphere as its "Sphere of Influence," the US has also applied a similar concept to Ukraine's sovereignty, treating it as its own backyard. Conversely, from a historical perspective from Russia's point of view, the Eurasian region falls under its "sphere of influence." If we delve into the Russian perspective, George Kennan's reaction to the Senate's 1998 ratification of NATO expansion up to Russia's borders was, "I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War, I think it is a tragic mistake." Similarly, during the Crimea crisis, Henry Kissinger conveyed, "The West must understand that to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus."

There are several inescapable facts that both countries must reckon with as they navigate their respective bargaining tables. As some strategic scholars have pointed out, various routes can lead to a sustainable peace process. These include the influence of the international community, the impact of economic sanctions on the global and national economy of Russia, and the consequences of the ongoing proactive offensive military operations targeting Russian territory, which could generate internal political pressure on the Russian government. Undoubtedly, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian military is a result of military aid, training, and intelligence support provided by the United States and Western allies.