Wagner Group rebel( March on Moscow) against Russian Military leadership: An analysis

 

Introduction

 

On Saturday, the internal dispute situation between the military command and Wagner Group in Voronezh emerged, and Prigozhin, the leader of the private mercenary group Wagner, escalated into a full-fledged uprising. The Wagner commander declared that he would avenge the "large number" of his mercenary soldiers who, he claimed, were killed by the Russian military leadership in a raid on their camp. A "counterterrorist operation against Political regime" has been declared in Moscow, and security personnel have been deployed throughout western Russia. Regional governors have also urged citizens to avoid using highways.

@CRUXnews, video "Treason, Treachery..." | Putin Slams Wagner Mutiny As Prigozhin Threatens To March On Moscow” accessed, 24 June 2023

 

According to Alexander Gusev, the regional governor of Voronezh, the Wagner Forces were first deployed in the Lipestsk area of Russia, which is roughly a six-hour drive from Moscow. "Efforts are being made in Voronezh to put out a fire at a fuel storage tank in the oil depot on Dimitrov Street," he stated. Thirty pieces of equipment and over 100 firefighters worked at the scene.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, "following an agreement between the Kremlin and Wagner, the leader of PMC Wagner uploaded a video to his Telegram account on June 24, 2023, " The ministry has announced their intention to dismantle PMC Wagner. The March for Justice took place on June 23rd. We walked about 200 km in one day. We hadn't shed a single drop of fighter’s blood during this time, and we had not engaged in any aerial combat, so we resumed our convoys and returned to our field camp as scheduled.” However, we were aware that one of the parties was responsible for the Russian casualties. During a discussion with a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of the Wagner group redirected their convoys.

The Wagner Group's capacity to exert control over individuals through combat readiness poses a direct challenge to Putin's political framework. Interestingly, both the Russian military and government are cognizant of the potential ramifications of the group's presence. Wagnerin Russia, so far, Russia's adversaries have remained in the West. Currently, the greatest threat to Russia and Putin stems from domestic sources within the country. The justification for Russia's war against Ukraine is unraveling.

The reasons of rebel

Internal factors: Firstly, despite maintaining military dominance, Russia suffered a defeat in the Ukraine War. In contrast to Russia's use of Wagner, Ukraine also employs domestic mercenaries. However, there are significant differences between the military cultures and histories of the two countries. Secondly, internal mismanagement regarding the availability of weapons and other resources for Wagner Group troops on the front lines of combat was the reason, why the Wagner Group Chief addressed the Ministry of Defence and Russian military weaknesses in front of Russian citizens?

Thirdly, the Wagner ensemble has not received a formal, state-recognized award. According to the chairman of the Wagner Group, the president of the country only speaks based on what a select group of Ministry of Defense employees has written for him, which may not necessarily reflect the reality of the situation. Fourthly, the Russian Army unlawfully attacked members of the Wagner Group. Following the attack, HWG, the head of the group, stated that they were seeking retribution from the Russian President for what they perceived as crimes committed against their group. He subsequently presented a list of demands. Fifth, President Putin and his administration lacked the political will to resolve the internal misunderstandings between the Wagner group and the military and Ministry of Defense

Cooperative support in Ukraine War

 

Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a series of events that had an unimaginable impact on both Russia and its leader. The Russian president's form of semi-totalitarian state control, most Russians either naively support government activities or turn a blind eye to the harsh reality due to the military's dismal record during the conflict.

Prigozhin was not a member of Putin's inner circle in early 2022, and he was unaware of the strategy to attack Ukraine. Furthermore, the Kremlin had no intention of involving the Wagner Group in the conflict. During the first month of the conflict, a substantial portion of the regular army was unable to conduct offensive operations due to significant personnel and equipment losses, as well as the termination of contracts by professional soldiers. The Wagner Group Structure recruitment campaign, which began in March and primarily targets former members, has significantly lowered its formal qualification requirements. The Russian command has decided to alter the course of the "special operation" by replacing the combined deep movements of the motorized columns following the withdrawal from Kiev, Chernihiv, and Sumy.

The Wagner Group suffered significant losses during the Battle of Bakhmut from January to March. Only 10,000 out of the 50,000 prisoners that Wagner's PMC can recruit will remain at the front. The remaining troops were either killed or deserted until Bakmut emerged victorious. This raises the question of why Russia's PMC regulator and the Russian armed forces did not value the lives of the PMC warriors enough to ensure their safe return home after accomplishing their mission.

The 106th Airborne Division, which mainly consisted of mobilized reserves, started to arrive in larger numbers near Bakhmut in mid-January. This was due to some of Wagner's attackers losing their combat capabilities. They have taken control of the southern sector of the front. From the outset, the Wagner Group's mercenaries had an advantage over the regular army in terms of training and personal equipment. The peak of the Wagner group's operations took place in November, December, and January, during which they seized control of Soledar and strengthened their positions in the northern and southern suburbs of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians were compelled to concentrate a substantial portion of their most robust battalions in this region because of the severe siege.

In March 2023, Prigozhin publicly criticized the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry, as well as several senior Generals, for their failure to promptly capture the Bakhmut region. The expectation of the Wagner group turned high after Bakhmut Victory, for example, nationalist groups associated with Igor Girkin have been spreading rumors that it is time for Ukrainian offensive operations to gain an advantage over the territory under Russian military control. They believe that by doing so, they can exploit the weaknesses of the Kremlin.

 

A Conspiracy to use civil war for vacating the old route

Firstly, he was indicating that PMC had forgotten its own mission and had instead prioritised Russian national interests. Another hand, he was indicating that those who strategically promote PMC as a potential leading group for leading Russia in the coming years are contributing to the efforts of Putin's enemies to push the country into a state of civil war, particularly with the assistance of Western intelligence agencies. The fact that a civil war could serve the interests of either Russia or the West is a secret vulnerability within the Russian military and political system. The leader of the Wagner group was aware of this vulnerability, having previously worked closely with Putin.

Secondly, the Ukrainian President has openly supported the positions taken by the leader of the Wagner group due to his courageous actions against the Russian military. This statement suggests that Ukraine shares a similar objective with the Wagner group, which is to impede the Russian military by shifting their focus away from the battlefield and towards an internal civil conflict. This is because the Russian military's top priority is to maintain political stability within its borders.

Thirdly, the PMC coup in Russia resulted from covert planning between the Wagner group and the Russian political elite. The goal was to quickly withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict due to the country's economic problems, manpower losses, and rapidly increasing military spending.

Fourth, despite the extensive list of internal contributions made by the Wagner Group, its leadership considers any internal rebellion to be a threat to the Russian Federation and its national sovereignty, which could result in an armed uprising. The situation was described as being on a path of rebellion. In the eyes of the Russian military and state, taking tough action against traitors is seen as uncompromising. However, questions arise about Russia's national interests and loyalties that go beyond this approach.

Fifth, as a result of PMC's active involvement in the Ukraine War, the Wagner Group exposed the deficiencies in Russia's military operations and internal political management to both Russian citizens and external adversaries. As a result, the Wagner Group is much more popular among ultra-nationalist groups than the liberal opposition. It is possible that by speaking out against the actions of the current political regime and armed forces, the PMC may gain greater support and popularity within the political opposition group of the United Russia Party. In other words, it will actively work against Putin's popular Ultra-Nationalist program in the upcoming Russian national election.

Sixth, the Russian people were reminded of their traumatic history through Putin's speech to the nation denouncing the Wagner Group coup, Putin reminded the Russian people of their traumatic history. According to Putin, "basically all of the West's military, economic, and information machinery" is directed against the Russian state. He utilized it as a political tool to unite the Russian people and avert the potential consequences of a national crisis, as seen during the period of 1917-1921. The success of the Wagner Group relied more on broad internal support than robust external support.

Outcome of the deal

The Wagner’s rebelled mostly against the establishment of the army and demanded reforms. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly left Russia for Belarus. The President of Belarus was involved in negotiating the Wagner Group's withdrawal from a violent uprising, during which Prigozhin had allegedly vowed to overthrow the Russian military leadership. Despite supporting Russian goals, members of Wagner who participated in the violent uprising would be punished.

Prigozhin-Moscow Deal Means Belarus "Exile" For The Wagner Chief & A Quick End To Russia's "Mutiny" CRUX NEWS, Video, Accessed Date, 24 June, 2023

The Ministry of Defense would offer employment to Wagner soldiers who did not participate in the rebellion. After, Yevgeny Prigozhin decided to halt the fighters' “march on Moscow” the Wagner rebel mercenary organization began withdrawing its fighters and equipment from Rostov-on-Don, located in southern Russia, on Saturday. Due to their 20-year friendship, Lukashenko volunteered to lead mediation efforts with Prigozhin. The demand of the Wagner Group was approved by President Vladimir Putin.

Conclusion

A turning point for Russia and Putin came with the violent uprising of Wagner's PMC against a Russian military operation led by its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. He poses a historically significant threat to Putin's administration and, more importantly, to the ideology of Putinism.

As HWG's major desire has been fulfilled with the agreement being reached, his popularity among Russian citizens has also increased. This is evident from the fact that he secured the sixth position in a survey conducted on June 23, 2023, in Russia. In his concise message regarding the march on Moscow and negotiations with the Kremlin, he not only exerted pressure domestically and internationally on the current political regime in Moscow, but kremlin also discussed internal condition with their Central Asian allies. Israel has expressed concern about the ongoing internal crisis in Russia to various entities, including the G7, US, and UK defense ministries, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Wagner Group rebels are primarily opposed to military leadership and seek reforms. These reforms could have an impact on Russian interests in the Ukraine War. Without military reforms, it is possible that other fighter groups may also oppose military authority in the future, which could lead to Russia engaging in combat to achieve victory. The internal weaknesses of the Russian military have been exposed, which is boosting the morale of Ukrainian military personnel and their plans for an upcoming offensive operation.

The main concern for the Kremlin and FSB is the next strategic move by Ukraine's powerful Western allies, whether it is internal, external, or in combat. The Wagner Group rebels are a significant consequence of inadequate internal management and a lack of political determination to address the absence of coordination and communication among military institutions and Russia's active war private military company (PMC).