Iranian Air Defence and geo-political Aspirations:  An Assessment

Iranian Defense Industry

The Iranian Defense Industry refers to the collection of state-owned and private companies in Iran that are responsible for the development, production, and maintenance of military equipment and technology. This industry has been a significant focus for the Iranian government, particularly since the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), which exposed Iran's vulnerability in terms of military capabilities.

Over the years, Iran has faced various arms embargoes and restrictions due to international concerns about its nuclear program and regional activities. As a result, Iran has heavily invested in building a domestic defense industry to reduce its reliance on foreign arms imports.

Key components of the Iranian Defense Industry include:

•  Military Hardware:  Iran has developed a range of military hardware, including various types of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and naval vessels. Notable examples include the domestically produced Karrar main battle tank, various armored personnel carriers, and naval vessels such as frigates and submarines.
• Missile Program: Iran has a well-developed missile program, which includes short-range, medium-range, and long-range ballistic missiles. The country has claimed to have developed precision-guided missile technology as well. The Qiam, Fateh, and Shahab series are some examples of domestically produced missiles.
•  Aerospace Industry:  Iran has also ventured into aerospace technology, launching satellites into orbit using domestically developed launch vehicles. This has raised concerns among the international community due to the dual-use nature of rocket technology that can be applied to both civilian and military purposes.
• Air Force:    Iran's air force operates a mix of domestic and imported aircraft, including fighters, bombers, and transport planes. It has also attempted to develop advanced fighter aircraft like the Qaher-313, although there are questions about the operational capability of some of these projects.

Drone Technology and Iranian Aspirations

An asymmetric strategy, commonly adopted by nations lacking the capacity to deploy contemporary fighter aircraft and other advanced capability systems, involves the utilization of tools such as drones, land-attack cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Notably, drones provide Tehran with significant adaptability and a level of plausible deniability, all without requiring cutting-edge technology. This empowers them to execute a form of integrated aerial warfare, wherein drones can be dispatched to eliminate adversary radar systems prior to subsequent ballistic missile assaults. Presently, the proficiency of the United States and its neighbouring allies in effectively countering drones lags behind.

To counteract these capabilities, the United States and its allies should seize the present opportunity to establish a comprehensive regional air and missile defense framework. The choice made in 2021 to include Israel within the jurisdiction of the United States Central Command has generated avenues for enhanced synergy between Israel's armed forces and other neighbouring militaries. This collaboration encompasses the exchange of information as well as the formulation of shared strategies and protocols.

Iran has provided Russia with three distinct drone models: the Shahed 131 and 136 single-use kamikaze drones. Moscow has adopted these as cost-effective substitutes for cruise missiles. Additionally, Iran has delivered the Mohajer-6 multi-role drone, designed for intelligence reconnaissance and equipped with the capability to transport a missile payload.

In 2022, Israel's defense industry achieved record-high exports totaling $12.5 billion, marking the highest figure since the nation's establishment 75 years ago. Notably, approximately a quarter of these exports were directed towards Arab states. Among these, Bahrain and the UAE emerged as significant partners, contributing $853 million to Israel's overall arms export earnings of $11.4 billion. Drones held a substantial share, accounting for 25% of the total exports in 2022, while missiles, rockets, and air defense systems comprised 19% of the exported goods.

Iranian Drone: Mohajer-6

The Iranian Revolution has not only impacted the regional dynamics of West Asia but has also significantly influenced the internal political and industrial structures. Following the United States, there have been remarkable advancements in Iranian air defense technology.

Recently, the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics introduced the Mohajer-10 during an exhibition commemorating Defence Industry Day. This unmanned attack aircraft bears resemblance to the United States' MQ-9 Reaper and was featured in videos taking off from an undisclosed airstrip and conducting flight. The aircraft boasts the capacity to transport various types of bombs and anti-radar equipment, in addition to performing surveillance missions.

The newly unveiled drone has the impressive capacity to remain airborne for a maximum of 24 hours, operating at altitudes of 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), and covering a distance of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), as reported by the official IRNA news agency. The drone comes equipped with advanced electronic and intelligence systems. These specifications represent a notable advancement compared to its predecessor, the "Mohajer-6," which could carry 150 kilograms of weaponry and sustain flight for 12 hours. Notably, the earlier model had a lower flight altitude of 5,400 meters and a speed of 200 kilometers per hour.

Air Defense Technology

Starting in the 1990s, the Aerospace Industries Organization has endeavored to produce indigenous replicas of the F5 aircraft. This initiative began with the Azaraksh and later advanced to the Saeghe model. Besides the focus on its nuclear program, a few procurement challenges faced by Iran have captured public interest as significantly as its nearly decade-long endeavor to acquire Russia's advanced S-300 air defense system. The goal was to bolster Tehran's deterrent capabilities. Under pressure from Washington, Moscow withdrew from the original 2007 agreement due to the restrictions imposed by UN Security Council Resolution 1929, which prohibited specific conventional arms transfers to and from Iran in 2010.

As per the 2011 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA), foreign financial institutions or their subsidiaries engaging with sanctioned banks are prohibited from conducting transactions in the United States or involving the U.S. dollar.

 

Global Air Powers Ranking, 2023

 

Year	Country	Attack units	True value rating	Support units	Training	Global rank
2021	Iran	183	25.8	77	83	43
2021	Turkey	-	32.4	370	22	33
2023	Israel	251	58.0	176	154	9

Source: Global Air Powers Ranking (2023), World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft

URL: https://www.wdmma.org/ranking.php

The World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) assessment considers distinct aircraft categories, encompassing attack, logistics, special-mission, and general support variants while evaluating the contemporary aerial combat capabilities of the Israeli Air Force in 2023. Presently, the service maintains an inventory of 581 operational aircraft units, and the assessment of "Readiness Rates" adheres to the established USAF standard. It's worth noting that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are not currently monitored by WDMMA due to discrepancies in reporting among various nations and sources.

In recent times, Iran has made consistent progress in both the development and manufacture of drones, along with the transfer of drone technology and components to proxy militias throughout West Asia. Iranian drones have been employed in various assaults against Israel and Saudi Arabia. For instance, the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in 2019 prompted comments from the U.S. President implicating Iran. Additionally, these drones have been utilized in actions against the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Notably, in January 2022, the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen targeted the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, in October of the previous year, Iranian retaliation for Israeli airstrikes in Syria took the form of an attack on a U.S. base in Syria, located in the southern region.

Iran's geopolitical interest and Arms embargo

Iran's development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) reached maturity during the mid-to late-1990s, although instances of their deployment abroad went unnoticed until the early 2000s, according to insights from Farzin Nadimi, a fellow at The Washington Institute, as reported in The Iran Primer. By 2022, Iran's drone capabilities had substantially impacted the strategic equilibrium to varying degrees across conflict zones spanning Europe, Africa, and Asia. Notably, in 2022 alone, Ukraine successfully intercepted and brought down over 300 Iranian Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones. Iran has vehemently refuted allegations, both from Ukraine and Western sources, that it is providing drones to Russia. As far back as 2008, Sudan employed Iran's Ababil-3 drones in operations against the Sudan People's Liberation Movement and other rebel groups in the Darfur region.

Afghanistan, led by the Sunni Muslim Taliban regime, presents a potential challenge to its adjacent neighbors, primarily Shiite Iran and secular Tajikistan. Notably, there has been a recent collaborative effort between Iran and Tajikistan, wherein Iran has provided assistance in establishing a new drone manufacturing facility through innovative cooperation. This initiative has garnered interest from 22 countries seeking to import Iranian-manufactured drones. Furthermore, Iran has extended its influence by exporting drones and drone-related technology to various proxies, which encompass Lebanon's Hezbollah, as well as militias such as Kataib Hezbollah and other factions within Iraq's Hashd al Shaabi.

In contrast to Iran, Israel, and Turkey, the other prominent drone exporters within West Asia, are not subject to international sanctions. These countries have the capability to import superior-quality drone components and electronics. Back in 2007, the U.N. Security Council unanimously imposed an embargo on the trade or transfer of conventional arms from Iran, including drones. 

Following the year 2015, with the introduction of the Iran Nuclear Deal, the arms embargo on Iran was lifted. Subsequently, the U.N. prohibition on exporting conventional weaponry, drones included, was revoked in 2020. Following this development, Iran became notably more active in its pursuit of weapon exports. However, it's important to note that Iranian drones with a range exceeding 300 kilometers (180 miles) continue to incorporate technology associated with missiles, a technology that remained under embargo until October 2023. This aspect led to discussions among Western nations in October 2022 regarding the decision to lift the arms embargo on Tehran. The possibility of Tehran engaging in a UAV sale to Serbia holds significance for a few geo-political reasons. 

Concerning grounds

Another aspect is Iran's determination to remain independent in the global weapons market for its armament requirements. Nonetheless, Iran has acquired a limited quantity of Western guns, most likely in an attempt to reverse-engineer such weapons in order to fill gaps in its own defense industrial base. While imports are likely to stay low in the near future.  Iran's authorities have stated their intention to increase weapons exports.

Israel and Turkey's advancement in the internal defense industry stands as a significant factor both in regional competition and concern within the Iranian context. Specifically, Israel benefits from the unobstructed transfer of air defense technology through its partnership with the United States, which includes annual military aid. When considering the landscape of regional strategic interests, Iran pursues a distinct set of foreign policy goals that differentiate it from other key regional players.

The United States stands as Iran's paramount security challenge. Key components of Iran's doctrine and operational concepts (CONOPs) are designed to address the presence of a militarily superior opponent. Witnessing the display of U.S. military capabilities in the vicinity, the Iranian armed forces acknowledge their inherent constraints. They are cognizant that their conventional forces cannot engage on a balanced level with the robust military capabilities possessed by the United States.

For example, Iran refutes allegations of providing weaponry to Russia for utilization in the Ukrainian conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian conveyed that Iran maintains a neutral stance and is not endorsing either faction involved in the war in Ukraine. In October 2022, Israel's Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, restated firmly that Israel would not furnish weapons to Ukraine to combat the Russian invasion.